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5", "syd_date": "2026-10-10", "syd_weekday": "周六", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.10575338305629409, "score": "2-0"}, {"p": 0.09527319512620855, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.08534427664508831, "score": "3-0"}]}, {"away": {"key": "olympique lyonnais", "known": true, "n_eff": 31.2, "name": "Olympique Lyonnais", "zh": "里昂"}, "comp": "fr.1", "comp_zh": "法甲", "days_ahead": 10, "exp_goals": [1.5770877241179455, 1.325954782123017], "home": {"key": "racing lens", "known": true, "n_eff": 32.7, "name": "Lens", "zh": "朗斯"}, "id": "fr.1|2026-10-09|racing lens|olympique lyonnais", "interval": {"away": [0.2210287054461758, 0.4228914988814086], "draw": [0.22494306940268127, 0.2797138336055966], "home": [0.3187780703364692, 0.5398167748876489]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-10T05:45", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-09T18:45Z", "lam": [1.5770962699311892, 1.3259564121815997], "local_date": "2026-10-09", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.3162066268886958, "draw": 0.25577854502437847, "home": 0.42801482808692576}, "p_btts": 0.5878944420025621, "p_over25": 0.5547423021555892, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-10", "syd_weekday": "周六", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.11987384685076323, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09045578790939776, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.08135047665807787, "score": "1-0"}]}, {"away": {"key": "espanyol barcelona", "known": true, "n_eff": 36.3, "name": "RCD Espanyol de Barcelona", "zh": "西班牙人"}, "comp": "es.1", "comp_zh": "西甲", "days_ahead": 10, "exp_goals": [1.0265857428025444, 1.224524121737624], "home": {"key": "malaga", "known": true, "n_eff": 21.3, "name": "Málaga CF", "zh": "马拉加"}, "id": "es.1|2026-10-09|malaga|espanyol barcelona", "interval": {"away": [0.2968560056526221, 0.5329726713588195], "draw": [0.2502294527585011, 0.33059064209685596], "home": [0.19864885818819691, 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0.6966758824928532], "home": {"key": "arsenal", "known": true, "n_eff": 48.3, "name": "Arsenal", "zh": "阿森纳"}, "id": "en.1|2026-10-10|arsenal|leeds united", "interval": {"away": [0.10116614617818918, 0.21748016264274134], "draw": [0.20071271789219788, 0.29989945317035394], "home": [0.4884624868735134, 0.6914638546246631]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-10T22:30", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-10T11:30Z", "lam": [1.6315571250522087, 0.6966758850692514], "local_date": "2026-10-10", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.15216397949570684, "draw": 0.25398169620176164, "home": 0.5938543243025317}, "p_btts": 0.40858970108324266, "p_over25": 0.4114332664547395, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-10", "syd_weekday": "周六", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.154039027617879, "score": "1-0"}, {"p": 0.12972878783686667, "score": "2-0"}, {"p": 0.11577402709209152, "score": "1-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "athletic", "known": true, "n_eff": 39.1, "name": "Athletic Club", "zh": "毕尔巴鄂竞技"}, "comp": "es.1", "comp_zh": "西甲", "days_ahead": 10, "exp_goals": [1.2247048475829236, 1.0741096884728911], "home": {"key": "rayo vallecano madrid", "known": true, "n_eff": 36.3, "name": "Rayo Vallecano de Madrid", "zh": "巴列卡诺"}, "id": "es.1|2026-10-10|rayo vallecano madrid|athletic", "interval": {"away": [0.2249864073452898, 0.4105728822462372], "draw": [0.2585357572912328, 0.31954522870929397], "home": [0.29152042099510467, 0.5015232798440047]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-10T23:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-10T12:00Z", "lam": [1.224705600423222, 1.0741098951502333], "local_date": "2026-10-10", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.3155182505253604, "draw": 0.29462753334319725, "home": 0.38985421613144233}, "p_btts": 0.470873739937164, "p_over25": 0.40364697974021235, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 8", "syd_date": "2026-10-10", "syd_weekday": "周六", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.1379856326635914, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.11699114284189518, "score": "1-0"}, {"p": 0.1063196458850382, "score": "0-0"}]}, {"away": {"key": "acf fiorentina", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.4, "name": "ACF Fiorentina", "zh": "佛罗伦萨"}, "comp": "it.1", "comp_zh": "意甲", "days_ahead": 11, "exp_goals": [1.2128874929102784, 1.1814863890401448], "home": {"key": "genoa", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.4, "name": "Genoa CFC", "zh": "热那亚"}, "id": "it.1|2026-10-10|genoa|acf fiorentina", "interval": {"away": [0.2512293852244292, 0.4629924378932009], "draw": [0.25073668068107025, 0.31534872789105717], "home": [0.26668699206098195, 0.4662042441144505]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-11T00:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-10T13:00Z", "lam": [1.2128881776330105, 1.1814869185107242], "local_date": "2026-10-10", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.3480114971586453, "draw": 0.2887294676188681, "home": 0.36325903522248654}, "p_btts": 0.492953183539062, "p_over25": 0.4288208912497547, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-11", "syd_weekday": "周日", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.13661617827576802, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.10476840950236546, "score": "1-0"}, {"p": 0.10190368261621444, "score": "0-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "bayer 04 leverkusen", "known": true, "n_eff": 39.2, "name": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "zh": "勒沃库森"}, "comp": "de.1", "comp_zh": "德甲", "days_ahead": 11, "exp_goals": [1.364494265466011, 1.5906723082922616], "home": {"key": "mainz 05", "known": true, "n_eff": 30.6, "name": "Mainz 05", "zh": "美因茨"}, "id": "de.1|2026-10-10|mainz 05|bayer 04 leverkusen", "interval": {"away": [0.32012229781848184, 0.5374715571297415], "draw": 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1.6491859833317781], "home": {"key": "paderborn 07", "known": true, "n_eff": 16.3, "name": "SC Paderborn 07", "zh": "帕德博恩"}, "id": "de.1|2026-10-10|paderborn 07|stuttgart", "interval": {"away": [0.28087211869757467, 0.5872921862280113], "draw": [0.20020327206922914, 0.28248213702658775], "home": [0.1921456345450456, 0.46699171678633156]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-11T00:30", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-10T13:30Z", "lam": [1.3679291430913965, 1.6491989851230582], "local_date": "2026-10-10", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.4367157863211487, "draw": 0.24958427496822802, "home": 0.3136999387106234}, "p_btts": 0.6070723275677771, "p_over25": 0.5806356922417686, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "moved_league", "text": "主队帕德博恩：上赛季在德乙，评级部分来自下级/其他联赛，跨级别有偏差"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 31 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "中", "score": 2}, "round": "Matchday 5", "syd_date": "2026-10-11", "syd_weekday": "周日", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.11538026873638726, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09104546512118453, "score": "1-2"}, {"p": 0.07574598893176909, "score": "0-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "07 elversberg", "known": true, "n_eff": 16.3, "name": "SV 07 Elversberg", "zh": "埃尔弗斯贝格"}, "comp": "de.1", "comp_zh": "德甲", "days_ahead": 11, "exp_goals": [1.288639521038411, 1.713539875251692], "home": {"key": "union berlin", "known": true, "n_eff": 31.1, "name": "Union Berlin", "zh": "柏林联合"}, "id": "de.1|2026-10-10|union berlin|07 elversberg", "interval": {"away": [0.33680475257908304, 0.6406663000766808], "draw": [0.19341191503865413, 0.27206809203369886], "home": [0.15691426722340543, 0.4076664184458835]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-11T00:30", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-10T13:30Z", "lam": [1.2886407570938379, 1.7135584506012567], "local_date": "2026-10-10", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.46930717157985513, "draw": 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{"flags": [{"code": "small_sample", "text": "主队桑坦德竞技：历史样本少（加权约 7 场），评级偏保守"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 35 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "中", "score": 2}, "round": "Matchday 8", "syd_date": "2026-10-12", "syd_weekday": "周一", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.0988766997151308, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.0827584456909276, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.0802472017454297, "score": "1-2"}]}, {"away": {"key": "venezia", "known": true, "n_eff": 29.3, "name": "Venezia", "zh": "威尼斯"}, "comp": "it.1", "comp_zh": "意甲", "days_ahead": 13, "exp_goals": [1.9628965125481432, 0.8761746136921378], "home": {"key": "atalanta bc", "known": true, "n_eff": 42.9, "name": "Atalanta BC", "zh": "亚特兰大"}, "id": "it.1|2026-10-12|atalanta bc|venezia", "interval": {"away": [0.09246364763241008, 0.23788407443133222], "draw": [0.16232675323560838, 0.2663006035869821], "home": [0.5044864730729054, 0.7412418464996808]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-13T03:30", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-12T16:30Z", "lam": [1.9629610430946256, 0.876174640497188], "local_date": "2026-10-12", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.15609769458598993, "draw": 0.22056241238412116, "home": 0.6233398930298889}, "p_btts": 0.5061868343179822, "p_over25": 0.5398195217571843, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "moved_league", "text": "客队威尼斯：上赛季在意乙，评级部分来自下级/其他联赛，跨级别有偏差"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 1}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-13", "syd_weekday": "周二", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.11266147779974556, "score": "2-0"}, {"p": 0.11026146172287579, "score": "1-0"}, {"p": 0.10509951892663184, "score": "1-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "udinese calcio", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.4, "name": "Udinese Calcio", "zh": "乌迪内斯"}, "comp": "it.1", "comp_zh": "意甲", "days_ahead": 13, "exp_goals": [1.3783151716875615, 1.263593015084294], "home": {"key": "torino", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.4, "name": "Torino", "zh": "都灵"}, "id": "it.1|2026-10-12|torino|udinese calcio", "interval": {"away": [0.24324335248945406, 0.43128387023154446], "draw": [0.23662915119508177, 0.29936697240266796], "home": [0.29774852437045174, 0.5068395376222373]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-13T05:45", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-12T18:45Z", "lam": [1.3783175402426115, 1.26359403637255], "local_date": "2026-10-12", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.33726358715886096, "draw": 0.2721217008497456, "home": 0.3906147119913934}, "p_btts": 0.5421685030037529, "p_over25": 0.49204031077914806, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-13", "syd_weekday": "周二", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.1296300450871831, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09258852830465393, "score": "1-0"}, {"p": 0.08548869133306464, "score": 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"主队考文垂：上赛季在英冠，评级部分来自下级/其他联赛，跨级别有偏差"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 1}, "round": "Matchday 6", "syd_date": "2026-10-13", "syd_weekday": "周二", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.11885810617215634, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09045072732280242, "score": "1-2"}, {"p": 0.07974555277253027, "score": "0-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "sevilla", "known": true, "n_eff": 36.8, "name": "Sevilla", "zh": "塞维利亚"}, "comp": "es.1", "comp_zh": "西甲", "days_ahead": 13, "exp_goals": [1.5429176697251499, 1.2664364748717283], "home": {"key": "levante", "known": true, "n_eff": 36.3, "name": "Levante UD", "zh": "莱万特"}, "id": "es.1|2026-10-12|levante|sevilla", "interval": {"away": [0.2207459495954697, 0.41618414668038345], "draw": [0.22456049241488665, 0.2835223695301722], "home": [0.3199137782249045, 0.5430240766717412]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-13T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-12T19:00Z", "lam": [1.542924619095063, 1.2664375187542771], "local_date": "2026-10-12", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.30748963318919914, "draw": 0.26019570154609367, "home": 0.43231466526470713}, "p_btts": 0.5699516298457156, "p_over25": 0.5327746421952846, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 0}, "round": "Matchday 8", "syd_date": "2026-10-13", "syd_weekday": "周二", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.12301403204341743, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09081405671480275, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.0876538581594401, "score": "1-0"}]}, {"away": {"key": "sporting clube portugal", "known": true, "n_eff": 42.7, "name": "Sporting CP", "zh": "葡萄牙体育"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [1.7156986326664274, 1.351268710915716], "home": {"key": "racing lens", "known": true, "n_eff": 32.7, "name": "Lens", "zh": "朗斯"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|racing lens|sporting clube portugal", "interval": {"away": 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"客队布拉格斯拉维亚：历史样本少（加权约 5 场），评级偏保守"}, {"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 51 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "高", "score": 4}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.1043781248366298, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.08810169424571145, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.07677926635494507, "score": "1-2"}]}, {"away": {"key": "lille osc", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.4, "name": "Lille", "zh": "里尔"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [1.8788749923582095, 0.6664519438389618], "home": {"key": "arsenal", "known": true, "n_eff": 48.3, "name": "Arsenal", "zh": "阿森纳"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|arsenal|lille osc", "interval": {"away": [0.06378501340253526, 0.18210285105009183], "draw": [0.14857346832602808, 0.2842223985258545], "home": [0.5527650313432992, 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"time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.10792043383401895, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.08534476127871915, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.08122955625340829, "score": "1-2"}]}, {"away": {"key": "brugge", "known": true, "n_eff": 23.5, "name": "Club Brugge", "zh": "布鲁日"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [2.669373972949609, 1.2353651791634808], "home": {"key": "internazionale milano", "known": true, "n_eff": 44.9, "name": "Inter Milan", "zh": "国际米兰"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|internazionale milano|brugge", "interval": {"away": [0.07768276897314137, 0.27737382007144873], "draw": [0.1128071467859457, 0.2220578460434116], "home": [0.5126468741716722, 0.8059660230312471]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-14T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T19:00Z", "lam": [2.670313190746012, 1.2353659985266718], "local_date": "2026-10-13", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.15205218275957885, "draw": 0.17208307729125796, "home": 0.6758647399491631}, "p_btts": 0.6631511727413545, "p_over25": 0.7477203771647315, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "低", "score": 1}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.08865895012324154, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.07891572133059489, "score": "3-1"}, {"p": 0.07176735496118429, "score": "2-0"}]}, {"away": {"key": "barcelona", "known": true, "n_eff": 48.0, "name": "Barcelona", "zh": "巴塞罗那"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [1.430127308582693, 2.625071884247802], "home": {"key": "galatasaray", "known": true, "n_eff": 21.0, "name": "Galatasaray", "zh": "加拉塔萨雷"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|galatasaray|barcelona", "interval": {"away": [0.45051552718142535, 0.8182097776624302], "draw": [0.10658480935820669, 0.22653180430957207], "home": [0.07462256666610165, 0.3324191891961332]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-14T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T19:00Z", "lam": [1.4301306835706247, 2.6258882935057604], "local_date": "2026-10-13", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.6281998663175898, "draw": 0.18173632614086482, "home": 0.19006380754154528}, "p_btts": 0.7085862972272634, "p_over25": 0.7699686593916514, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 37 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "中", "score": 2}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.08539505959505612, "score": "1-2"}, {"p": 0.07474596243796157, "score": "1-3"}, {"p": 0.06796773305058942, "score": "1-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "psv", "known": true, "n_eff": 41.0, "name": "PSV Eindhoven", "zh": "埃因霍温"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [2.272034353172959, 1.8963039623352587], "home": {"key": "rb leipzig", "known": true, "n_eff": 34.0, "name": "RB Leipzig", "zh": "RB 莱比锡"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|rb leipzig|psv", "interval": {"away": [0.16655353087891803, 0.4892814257679498], "draw": [0.1563079193508578, 0.23421470422132962], "home": [0.31069616436972214, 0.6702491743896039]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-14T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T19:00Z", "lam": [2.2722712042834825, 1.8963511437189817], "local_date": "2026-10-13", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.32647019537409555, "draw": 0.2054402498477834, "home": 0.4680895547781209}, "p_btts": 0.7652778994449387, "p_over25": 0.7855709970331572, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 36 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "中", "score": 2}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.07575531461134187, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.0718293387530047, "score": "2-2"}, {"p": 0.06967856972320802, "score": "1-1"}]}, {"away": {"key": "bayern munchen", "known": true, "n_eff": 44.0, "name": "Bayern Munich", "zh": "拜仁慕尼黑"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [1.017986348399223, 3.7224407078881514], "home": {"key": "viking", "known": true, "n_eff": 1.0, "name": "Viking", "zh": "维京"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|viking|bayern munchen", "interval": {"away": [0.6389162370739636, 0.9571882969469516], "draw": [0.02789955630534126, 0.18347125399602185], "home": [0.013118160115578419, 0.18050480613923348]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-14T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T19:00Z", "lam": [1.0179864695407734, 3.7354563198374464], "local_date": "2026-10-13", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.8505217857525428, "draw": 0.09251370692599818, "home": 0.056964507321458885}, "p_btts": 0.624889988630343, "p_over25": 0.8527373486754289, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "small_sample", "text": "主队维京：历史样本少（加权约 1 场），评级偏保守"}, {"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 32 个百分点"}, {"code": "heavy_favourite", "text": "一边倒：热门胜率约 85%，剩下 15% 属于冷门/平局空间"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "高", "score": 3}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.07637710270223176, "score": "1-3"}, {"p": 0.07502762068801018, "score": "0-3"}, {"p": 0.07132583274498132, "score": "1-4"}]}, {"away": {"key": "napoli", "known": true, "n_eff": 40.0, "name": "Napoli", "zh": "那不勒斯"}, "comp": "uefa.cl", "comp_zh": "欧冠", "days_ahead": 14, "exp_goals": [1.6703301084366304, 1.3200680824769198], "home": {"key": "villarreal", "known": true, "n_eff": 41.2, "name": "Villarreal", "zh": "比利亚雷亚尔"}, "id": "uefa.cl|2026-10-13|villarreal|napoli", "interval": {"away": [0.17646024182733697, 0.44033260808776753], "draw": [0.20060081492252724, 0.2804727640856588], "home": [0.30932219052204324, 0.6158260500773416]}, "kickoff_syd": "2026-10-14T06:00", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-13T19:00Z", "lam": [1.6703447532357183, 1.3200696438380388], "local_date": "2026-10-13", "market": {"available": false, "note": "暂无合法盘口源，本场不做盘口对比、不算期望值与凯利"}, "p": {"away": 0.29852760862467737, "draw": 0.24940173236609003, "home": 0.45207065900923254}, "p_btts": 0.5999551257068756, "p_over25": 0.5746581914339168, "risk": {"flags": [{"code": "cross_league", "text": "跨联赛对阵：强弱只能靠欧冠交手间接估计，比国内联赛更不稳"}, {"code": "wide_interval", "text": "模型不确定度高：某一结果的 10%-90% 区间宽达 31 个百分点"}, {"code": "unmodelled", "text": "伤病、首发、天气、动机等模型看不到的信息不在其中"}], "grade": "中", "score": 2}, "round": "Matchday 2", "syd_date": "2026-10-14", "syd_weekday": "周三", "time_known": true, "top_scores": [{"p": 0.11582425627507581, "score": "1-1"}, {"p": 0.09256767405095796, "score": "2-1"}, {"p": 0.07897505062417681, "score": "1-0"}]}], "generated_at": "2026-09-30T12:00:34Z", "latest_result_by_comp": {"德甲": "2026-09-20", "意甲": "2026-09-20", "欧冠": "2026-09-10", "法甲": "2026-09-20", "英超": "2026-09-20", "西甲": "2026-09-20"}, "ledger_newly_scored": 0, "live_track": {"n": 0, "pending": 57}, "matches_today": 0, "model": {"fit_as_of": "2026-10-01", "half_life_days": 300.0, "home_advantage": 1.233, "n_matches": 10626, "rho": -0.045}, "model_version": "poisson-ridge-1", "newest_result": "2026-09-20", "pending_results": [], "recent_results": [{"away": "利物浦", "comp_zh": "英超", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "伯恩茅斯", "outcome": 2, "predicted": null, "score": [0, 1]}, {"away": "水晶宫", "comp_zh": "英超", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "利兹联", "outcome": 1, "predicted": null, "score": [0, 0]}, {"away": "桑德兰", "comp_zh": "英超", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "曼城", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [5, 3]}, {"away": "曼联", "comp_zh": "英超", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "富勒姆", "outcome": 1, "predicted": null, "score": [1, 1]}, {"away": "马拉加", "comp_zh": "西甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "赫塔菲", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [1, 0]}, {"away": "皇家马德里", "comp_zh": "西甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "马德里竞技", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 1]}, {"away": "皇家贝蒂斯", "comp_zh": "西甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "拉科鲁尼亚", "outcome": 1, "predicted": null, "score": [1, 1]}, {"away": "莱万特", "comp_zh": "西甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "比利亚雷亚尔", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [3, 1]}, {"away": "皇家社会", "comp_zh": "西甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "瓦伦西亚", "outcome": 2, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 3]}, {"away": "RB 莱比锡", "comp_zh": "德甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "勒沃库森", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 0]}, {"away": "埃尔弗斯贝格", "comp_zh": "德甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "沙尔克 04", "outcome": 1, "predicted": null, "score": [0, 0]}, {"away": "霍芬海姆", "comp_zh": "德甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "帕德博恩", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [3, 1]}, {"away": "那不勒斯", "comp_zh": "意甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "佛罗伦萨", "outcome": 1, "predicted": null, "score": [1, 1]}, {"away": "科莫", "comp_zh": "意甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "弗罗西诺内", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 0]}, {"away": "热那亚", "comp_zh": "意甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "帕尔马", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 1]}, {"away": "亚特兰大", "comp_zh": "意甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "尤文图斯", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 0]}, {"away": "莱切", "comp_zh": "意甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "AC 米兰", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [3, 0]}, {"away": "布雷斯特", "comp_zh": "法甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "欧塞尔", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 1]}, {"away": "里尔", "comp_zh": "法甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "尼斯", "outcome": 0, "predicted": null, "score": [2, 1]}, {"away": "巴黎圣日耳曼", "comp_zh": "法甲", "date": "2026-09-20", "hit": null, "home": "马赛", "outcome": 2, "predicted": null, "score": [1, 2]}], "report_date": "2026-09-30", "schema": 1, "source_review": [{"name": "openfootball（GitHub）", "verdict": "采用", "why": "CC0 公有领域，明确允许任意使用；联赛赛程赛果与欧冠历史。每周自动更新，赛果通常滞后不超过一周。"}, {"name": "Wikipedia 官方 API", "verdict": "采用", "why": "CC BY-SA 4.0，官方 API 允许带说明性 User-Agent 的程序读取；用于当季欧冠（openfootball 尚未收录）。页面要署名。"}, {"name": "football-data.co.uk（含多家博彩公司赔率）", "verdict": "不用", "why": "站点声明仅限个人使用，禁止用于商业或「自动化 bot/爬虫/AI 的数据产品」，robots.txt 也屏蔽 AI 爬虫。它是唯一免费的赔率来源，所以盘口对比因此为空。"}, {"name": "The Odds API", "verdict": "不用", "why": "需要注册取得 API key；仓库 Secrets 与服务器上都没有可复用的 key，不注册、不付费。"}, {"name": "TAB 官网公开盘口", "verdict": "不用", "why": "被判定为 ai_controlled_access_rejected（拒绝 AI 受控访问），按硬边界失败关闭，不绕过。"}, {"name": "FixtureDownload", "verdict": "不用", "why": "条款禁止把内容转存到其他网站或再发布，本页是公开网页，会违反。"}, {"name": "TheSportsDB 免费档", "verdict": "不用", "why": "免费 key 只面向开发测试，实测欧冠「下一场」只返回 1 条、赛季接口最多返回 5 条，数据不完整。"}, {"name": "ClubElo API", "verdict": "不用", "why": "2026-09-30 实测 Fixtures 接口返回「已停用」，按日期取评级的接口返回 502。"}], "sources": [{"absent": 9, "failed": [], "fetched_at": "2026-09-30T12:00:36Z", "files": 51, "id": "openfootball-league", "label": "openfootball 联赛赛程赛果（CC0）", "latest_result": "2026-09-20", "ok": 42, "stale_cache": [], "upstream_updated": null}, {"absent": 0, "failed": [], "fetched_at": "2026-09-30T12:00:36Z", "files": 3, "id": "openfootball-cl", "label": "openfootball 欧冠历史赛果（CC0）", "latest_result": "2026-05-30", "ok": 3, "stale_cache": [], "upstream_updated": null}, {"absent": 0, "failed": [], "fetched_at": "2026-09-30T12:00:37Z", "files": 1, "id": "wikipedia-cl", "label": "Wikipedia 欧冠当季赛程赛果（CC BY-SA 4.0）", "latest_result": 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"key": "napoli", "n_eff": 40.0, "name": "Napoli", "rating": 0.13, "zh": "那不勒斯"}, {"goals_against": 1.37, "goals_for": 1.48, "key": "stuttgart", "n_eff": 33.2, "name": "VfB Stuttgart", "rating": 0.1, "zh": "斯图加特"}, {"goals_against": 1.58, "goals_for": 1.66, "key": "psv", "n_eff": 41.0, "name": "PSV Eindhoven", "rating": 0.08, "zh": "埃因霍温"}, {"goals_against": 1.33, "goals_for": 1.36, "key": "rb leipzig", "n_eff": 34.0, "name": "RB Leipzig", "rating": 0.03, "zh": "RB 莱比锡"}, {"goals_against": 1.23, "goals_for": 1.24, "key": "galatasaray", "n_eff": 21.0, "name": "Galatasaray", "rating": 0.01, "zh": "加拉塔萨雷"}, {"goals_against": 1.53, "goals_for": 1.42, "key": "brugge", "n_eff": 23.5, "name": "Club Brugge", "rating": -0.11, "zh": "布鲁日"}, {"goals_against": 1.45, "goals_for": 1.32, "key": "bodo glimt", "n_eff": 7.3, "name": "Bodø/Glimt", "rating": -0.12, "zh": "博德闪耀"}, {"goals_against": 1.38, "goals_for": 1.19, "key": "fenerbahce", "n_eff": 14.2, "name": "Fenerbahçe", "rating": -0.19, "zh": "费内巴切"}, {"goals_against": 1.53, "goals_for": 1.26, "key": "feyenoord rotterdam", "n_eff": 37.0, "name": "Feyenoord", "rating": -0.27, "zh": "费耶诺德"}, {"goals_against": 1.09, "goals_for": 0.71, "key": "athen", "n_eff": 12.2, "name": "AEK Athens", "rating": -0.38, "zh": "AEK 雅典"}, {"goals_against": 1.45, "goals_for": 0.99, "key": "shakhtar donetsk", "n_eff": 3.1, "name": "Shakhtar Donetsk", "rating": -0.46, "zh": "顿涅茨克矿工"}, {"goals_against": 1.79, "goals_for": 0.99, "key": "viking", "n_eff": 1.0, "name": "Viking", "rating": -0.8, "zh": "维京"}, {"goals_against": 1.79, "goals_for": 0.95, "key": "slavia praha", "n_eff": 4.8, "name": "Slavia Prague", "rating": -0.85, "zh": "布拉格斯拉维亚"}, {"goals_against": 1.89, "goals_for": 0.93, "key": "sabah", "n_eff": 1.0, "name": "Sabah", "rating": -0.96, "zh": "沙巴"}, {"goals_against": 1.62, "goals_for": 0.56, "key": "lask", "n_eff": 14.1, "name": "LASK", "rating": -1.06, "zh": "林茨竞技"}, {"goals_against": 2.1, "goals_for": 0.99, "key": "slovan bratislava", "n_eff": 2.6, "name": "Slovan Bratislava", "rating": -1.11, "zh": "布拉迪斯拉发斯洛文"}]}}